- A Forex trader could trade more transaction compared to the futures market (the trading volume could be a times larger), and the risk will be strictly under control. The trading volume of the Forex market is 46 times larger compared to the futures market, moreover Forex traders could make more profit from the Forex market due to the larger trading volume (the transaction volume is a few times larger), the REFCO Switzerland rich transaction platform allowed transaction between 1-100 times to be carry on, moreover a Forex trader could decide his or her own transaction amount, for example: Your account has $30,000, the basic transaction unit is each $1,000 (which transaction amount in $1.00, million), namely, so the proportion of the margin of each transaction unit is 100:1.
- The risk of the Forex trader is under control, such margin call will not happen compared to futures, through the Forex trading system, your risk will receive the strict limit, even if your margin if lower then the deposit required, the Forex trading system will automatically settle your position, this means even if a Forex trader suffered losses, moreover if the market is suffering from a disaster fluctuation, your loss could not surpass your account amount. In order to understand the advantages, please apply for the demo account to carry on the complete zero risk.
- A Forex trader will receive a large limitation of liquidation and a relatively fair market because the trading volume of the Forex market is large and it is also the largest liquidation market in the world. At present the trading volume in the Forex market is 140 billion Dollars, such big market will completely digest your transaction cash.
- A Forex trader may do 24 hours transactions and other markets are different, the Forex market is a 24 hour linkages market, it starts from every Sunday before dawn Australian Sydney market, substandard collect the transaction center Singapore, Tokyo, London, Frankfurt to New York continuously to open, such linkage market enable you to do 24 hours transactions, also provide flexibility for Forex trader to do transaction.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
What Is The Difference Between Forex and Futures?
The Benefits of Forex Trading
Forex trading is a huge business, averaging close to two trillion U.S. dollars in a day.
Foreign exchange is the largest global market. Even larger than the stock market of the United States and worldwide stock markets combined.
Below are a few benefits of forex trading.
1. It's Easy
Forex trading is quite basic. The major currencies involved are the U.S. dollar, the yen of Japan and the pound of the British.
Monitoring is minimal, so making researches and analysis can be more convenient.
2. You Can Do it from Home
Forex trading requires only time and a personal computer. Doing some research is advisable if you want to make the best decisions. As soon as you have your strategy laid down, conducting business online can be started for less cost and with no professional fees (yet this can be an alternative).
There are many online alternatives for forex trading, so you need to find out which is the best option for you. If you know someone who conducts his business this way, seek for their advise.
3. The Investment is Minimal
Doing a currency trading business requires a small capital. Trading alternatives are accessible for a small investment, some for a minimal amount of a few hundred dollars. This paves the way for the involvement of new traders as well as for them to learn the business.
Forex trading is a good stepping stone for entrance into the trading market.
4. You Can Make Money
Though conducting forex market trading entails some research, skill, and good fortune, earning money is still possible. At times, the amount being paid gets overstated but there are traders earning huge amounts of money in forex.
Forex trading also provides more leverage compared to other markets. Small increments of money can be used to work in your favor, and the process of trading is simpler.
5. It's Flexible
Foreign exchange operates on a twenty-four hour basis which means that you can work at any time of the day without waiting for the start and end of the exchange to know your position. You can trade at any given period, which allows you more control compared to stock market trading. In addition, this provides quick reaction time to breaking news.
If you have the interest to engage in the foreign exchange market, explore the market. Free information are provided in the Internet by many trading firms. The extent of your knowledge allows you to come up with better decisions. Take advantage of free trial periods as well, which can allow you to test the waters and find out if the market is indeed for you.
Foreign Exchange (Forex) Market
Presently, there are various kinds of financial market, it is divided into: Stock market, interest market (including bond, commercial bill and so on), gold market (including gold, platinum, silver), futures market (including grain, cotton and kapok, oil and so on), option market and foreign exchange market or forex market and so on.
The foreign exchange market is a place to trade foreign exchange currency, or it is also a place for the transaction of all foreign currency. The foreign exchange market therefore is existence, because of:
The foreign exchange market is a place to trade foreign exchange currency, or it is also a place for the transaction of all foreign currency. The foreign exchange market therefore is existence, because of:
Trade and investment
Import and export business, people pays one kind of currency when doing business, but when earns another kind of currency when receive the commodity. This means that, when settling account, business people will pay and receive different currencies. Therefore, they must convert the currencies that they received into the currencies that they could buy commodities. With this similar, when buying a foreign property a company must use the concerned country's currency to make payment, therefore, it needs to convert the domestic currency is concerned country's currency.
Speculation
Currencies exchange rates could fluctuate according to the demand and supply between two currencies. A Forex trader buys up one kind of currency in an exchange rate, but up casts this currency in another more advantageous exchange rate, he may gain. Speculation has occupied most of the Forex market.
Hedging
Due to the fluctuation between two currencies, those companies who owns foreign asset (for example factory), when these companies convert these properties into cost country currencies, there consist of certain risks. When the value of a foreign asset which is estimated based on foreign currencies remained unchanged, if the exchange rate changes, when converting this property value according to the domestic currency, there could be profit and loss. The company may eliminate such hidden risk through hedging. This carries out a foreign currency trading, its transaction result just counterbalances the foreign currency property profit and loss which produces by the exchange rate change.
Forex Market Development
The history of the Forex market as an international capital speculation market is much shorter compared the stock, the gold, the stock, the interest market, but it is developing in an astonishing speed. Today, the foreign exchange market daily trading volume has amounted to 150 billion US dollars, it’s scale has gone far beyond the stock, the stock and other finance commodity markets, it has became the world's most biggest sole finance market and the also the speculation market. Since the birth of the foreign exchange market, the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the Forex market is becoming bigger. In September 1985, 1 US dollar exchanged 220 Japanese Yen, but in May 1986, 1 US dollar only could exchange 160 Japanese Yen, in 8 months, the Japanese Yen has revalued 27%. In recent years, the foreign exchange market wave amplitude has been bigger, on September 8, 1992, 1 pound exchanged 2.0100 US dollars, on November 10, 1 pound exchanged 1.5080 US dollars, in the short two months, the pound exchanged US dollar exchange rate to fall more than 5,000, depreciated 25%. Not only that, presently, everyday the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the Forex market enlarges unceasingly, within a day the rise and drop 2% to 3% is commonly seen. On September 16, 1992, the pound exchanged US dollar from 1.8755 to fall to 1.7850, the pound on first lowers 5%.
Information Gathered from http://www.forex.com.pk
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Market Review 15 July 2009
The U.S market continued to climb higher yesterday, as additional buyers drove the major indices to a positive close. Apart from economic data, Goldman Sachs and Intel both released their earnings reports, having an impact on the intraday session.
Goldman Sachs beat analyst’s expectations, showing increasing profits for the second quarter. Even though the results were positive, the stock failed to present a dramatic move, finishing the session with a gain of only 0.15%. Please note that the stock is currently trading around major resistance of $150, a level that could lead to selling pressure, should the indices fail to continue their recent rally.
In addition Intel released their results after the closing bell, showing strong numbers. Tuesday evening the company released a promising statement showing that sales had jumped in the second quarter, on increasing demand. The stock jumped by 7% in after-hours trading and is now expected to have an impact on the U.S market’s open later today.
Timothy Geithner also gave the indices a boost, mentioning that the U.S economy does look like it is on the right path to recovery. The Treasury secretary stated that even though further problems in the economy and the financial sector are appearing, the U.S has the ability to deal with the situation. One must note that CIT Group Inc’s stock collapsed over the last couple of days, on speculation that the company could fail. According to Bloomberg news, the company’s failure would be the biggest collapse of a financial institution since September last year.
Dollar gave up some strength
Yesterday’s positive session in the U.S had an effect on all the tradable markets, as investors bought riskier assets. On the Forex market, the Dollar index collapsed throughout the session, allowing individual currencies to regain relative strength. The GBP/USD drifted higher, while the EUR/USD closed the session forming an additional hammer candlestick. During morning hours the EUR/USD rallied and is now trading below trend line resistance.
From a technical point of view the EUR/USD has now formed a wedge pattern and is trading below its break-out line. Even though this trade could potentially hit the 1.43 level, one must note that the risk reward ratio is not overwhelming, especially as the trend is still in range.
Economic news also had an influence on the various currency pairs as Germany’s ZEW investor confidence result unexpectedly dropped for the first time in nine months from 44.8 to only 39.5. Even though certain sectors in the Euro-zone are showing slight improvement, one can see from the result that investors are still skeptical, due to the current situation
Over in the U.K, the yearly CPI figure showed a steady rate, coming out at 1.8%, just off the BOE’s comfort level of 2%. The core rate was unchanged, showing a positive result of 1.6%.
In the U.S the Commerce Department released its June retail sales figures, showing that the sector had improved by 0.6 percent, seasonally adjusted from the previous month but had decreased year-over-year.
Market Data to Watch Out For
Even though sentiment is slightly improving, characterized by an increasing stock market and declining Dollar, currency pairs continue to trade in range. A wave of data is going to be released today, starting with European CPI figures. Analysts are expecting to see a drop in prices as the Euro-zone is still trying to deal with economic contraction. Later on during the session, U.S Data will grab investor’s attention as crude inventories are expected to be released, followed by the FOMC meeting minutes.
Forex Margin Trading Adsense
| ||||
| Currency name | Commonly used currency code | |||
| Singapore dollar Thai Bath Swedish krona Danish Krone Norwegian krone Spanish peseta German Mark US dollar Euro Japanese Yen Pound Swiss franc Australian dollar New Zealand Yuan Canadian dollar Hong Kong dollar French franc Italian lira Belgian franc | SGD THB SEK DKK NOK ESP DEM USD EUR JPY GBP CHF AUD NZD CAD HKD FRF ITL | |||
How Google Detects Adsense Invalid Clicks !!!
IP Address
If the AdSense click is originated from the same IP Address as the one used for accessing your AdSense account, your account is flagged.
Cookies
Most home users do not use static IP Address for Internet connection. In most cases just disconnect and reconnect will give you a new IP Address. But don’t forget, Google has set cookies on your computer.
Other Google Services
Thinking that you are safe just because you do not access your AdSense account? Think again. This time, consider these: GMail, Google Earth, Google Calendar, Google Search, Google Toolbar, Google Talk, Google Sitemap, Google Desktop, Blogger, and so on, and so on. With the wide range of services they provide, Google can trace the originator of most (or probably almost all) clicks.
Click Pattern 1
Oh, why this computer / IP address / person is so trigger-click-happy on this particular website but never click on the ads on other sites?
Click Pattern 2
And why is it that people accessing these sites direct (type-in URL or from bookmark) tend to be very active ad-clickers compared with those referred from search engine or other sites?
Click Pattern 3
And why the ad-clickers like to hit and run, compared with non ad-clickers that surf a few pages before leaving?
Click-Through-Rate (CTR)
Your CTR may range from 0.5% to 10%, but if it exceeds a certain point (probably around 10%), you are flagged.
Geo-Location
Used Urchin (Google Analytics) before? Then you should know that Google can trace traffics origin down to the small town. Different IP doesn’t mean much. Unless you site is really targetted to one small geo-point, a high number of clicks from nearby location will get you banned quickly.
Hardware address?
MAC address of the LAN card, modem, and router works almost like a fingerprint. I’m not sure if Google can track this, but probably they do. They have rocket scientist, remember?
Advertisers conversion rate
Ad click is one thing. But does it bring value to the advertisers? If none of the clicks on your site translate to conversion to the advertiser, you are in trouble. First the Smart-Pricing hits, then your AdSense account disabled.
Search Engine Ranking
Your website is not indexed on any search engine, not linked by any prominent website, but get consistently high traffic? That sounds like something is in play. Regardless of whether it is an adware-embedded software, spam, trojan clickbot, or intentionally installed click-exchange network, it doesn’t sound right.
Webpage design
How about the “click here” or “support us”? Google has the best search engine in the world. Is it really that hard to find those words?
Combo
Each of these detection methods might seem rather weak. But combine them together, and not many click-fraud can pass-through these filters. Even the smartest clickbot will have a hard time.
In short, it is almost impossible to cheat AdSense in the long term. Instead of spending time, money, and effort trying to outsmart Google, try these tips to improve your AdSense earning.
Disclaimer : I’m not working for Google nor in anyway know anyone inside Google. Google might or might not use these methods to detect click-fraud. I’d believe that they have much better detection mechanism.
Fundamental Forex Trading Analysis
Fundamental analysis refers to political and economic conditions that may affect currency prices. FOREX traders using fundamental analysis rely on news reports to gather information about unemployment rates, economic policies, inflation, and growth rates.
Fundamental analysis is often used to get an overview of currency movements and to provide a broad picture of economic conditions affecting a specific currency. Most traders rely on technical analysis for plotting entry and exit points into the market and supplement their findings with fundamental analysis.
Currency prices on the FOREX are affected by the forces of supply and demand, which in turn are affected by economic conditions. The two most important economic factors affecting supply and demand are interest rates and the strength of the economy. The strength of the economy is affected by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), foreign investment and trade balance.
Indicators
Various indicators are released by government and academic sources. They are reliable measures of economic health and are followed by all sectors of the investment market. Indicators are usually released on a monthly basis but some are released weekly.
Two of the most important fundamental indicators are interest rates and international trade. Other indicators include the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Durable Goods Orders, Producer Price Index (PPI), Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI), and retail sales.
Interest Rates - can have either a strengthening or weakening effect on a particular currency. On the one hand, high interest rates attract foreign investment which will strengthen the local currency. On the other hand, stock market investors often react to interest rate increases by selling off their holdings in the belief that higher borrowing costs will adversely affect many companies. Stock investors may sell off their holdings causing a downturn in the stock market and the national economy.
Determining which of these two effects will predominate depends on many complex factors, but there is usually a consensus amongst economic observers of how particular interest rate changes will affect the economy and the price of a currency.
International Trade – Trade balance which shows a deficit (more imports than exports) is usually an unfavorable indicator. Deficit trade balances means that money is flowing out of the country to purchase foreign-made goods and this may have a devaluing effect on the currency. Usually, however, market expectations dictate whether a deficit trade balance is unfavorable or not. If a county habitually operates with a deficit trade balance this has already been factored into the price of its currency. Trade deficits will only affect currency prices when they are more than market expectations.
Other indicators include the CPI – a measurement of the cost of living, and the PPI – a measurement of the cost of producing goods. The GDP measures the value of all goods and services within a country, while the M2 Money Supply measures the total amount of all
currency.
There are 28 major indicators used in the United States. Indicators have strong effects on financial markets so FOREX traders should be aware of them when preparing strategies. Up-to-date information is available on many websites and many FOREX brokers supply this information as part of their trading service.
Weekly Market Review July 20, 2009
After weeks of swinging from side to side, the major U.S stock indices bounced higher as traders and investors alike pulled money out of safe-haven assets and rushed back into riskier ones. The beginning of last week already signaled to traders that something promising was about to happen, as the S&P500, the broader market index, bounced off its 200 day moving average, after forming a tri-star doji pattern. (Please note that a tri-star doji is quite rare and will often signal a change in trend).
Good news from U.S companies helped to drive the indices forward, as names like Intel Corp., Google Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group, raised optimism on Wall Street, driving the major indices to close with weekly gains of about 7%. The increase in sentiment was immediately felt across the board as the Dollar index dropped at the start of the week, allowing carry trades and Dollar counterparts to snap back. The Dollar index finished the week on support, hanging on by a thread, as the counterparts jumped higher.
Famous Forex Quotes
- “If you get in on Jones’ tip; get out on Jones’ tip”. If you are riding another person’s idea, ride it all the way.
- Run early or not at all. Don't be an eleven o'clock bull or a five o'clock bear.
- Woodrow Wilson said, "a governments first priority is to organize the common interest against special interests". Successful traders seek out market opportunities capitalizing on the reality that government's first priority is rarely achieved.
- People who buy headlines eventually end up selling newspapers.
- If you do not know who you are, the market is an expensive place to find out.
- Never give advice-the smart don't need it and the stupid don't heed it.
- Disregard all prognostications. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word-nobody! Thus the successful trader bases no moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.
- Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health. If you are not worried, you are not risking enough.
- Except in unusual circumstances, get in the habit of taking your profit too soon. Don't torment yourself if a trade continues winning without you. Chances are it won't continue long. If it does console yourself by thinking of all the times when liquidating early preserved gains you would otherwise have lost.
- When the ship starts to sink, don't pray-jump!
- Life never happens in a straight line. Any adult knows this. But we can too easily be hypnotized into forgetting it when contemplating a chart. Beware of the chartist's illusion.
- Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.
- Whatever you do, whether you bet with the herd or against, think it through independently first.
- Repeatedly reevaluate your open positions. Keep asking yourself: would I put my money into this if it were presented to me for the first time today? Is this trade progressing toward the ending position I envisioned?
- It is a safe bet that the money lost by (short term) speculation is small compared with the gigantic sums lost by those who let their investments "ride". Long term investors are the biggest gamblers as after they make a trade they often times stay with it and end up losing it all. The intelligent trader will . By acting promptly-hold losses to a minimum.
- As a rule of thumb good trend lines should touch at least three previous highs or lows. The more points the line catches, the better the line.
- Volume and open interest are as important to the technician as price.
- The clearest and easiest way to determine a trend is from previous highs and lows. Higher highs and higher lows mark an uptrend, lower highs and lower lows mark a downtrend.
- Don't sell a quiet market after a fall because a low volume sell-off is actually a very bullish situation.
- Prices are made in the minds of men, not in the soybean field: fear and greed can temporarily drive prices far beyond their so called real value.
- When the market breaks through a weekly or monthly high, it is a buy signal. When it breaks through the previous weekly or monthly low, it is a sell signal.
- Every sunken ship has a chart.
- Take a trading break. A break will give you a detached view of the market and a fresh look at yourself and the way you want to trade for the next several weeks.
- Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that works for you.
- The final phase in a bull move is an accelerated runaway near the top. In this phase, the market always makes you believe that you have underestimated the potential bull market. The temptation to continue pyramiding your position is strong as profits have now swelled to the point that you believe your account can stand any setback. It is imperative at this juncture to take profits on your pyramids and reduce the position back to base levels. The base position is then liquidated when it becomes apparent that the move has ended.
Why Forex Trading
If you want to know why the Forex trading market is superiors to other investor options such as Equities or the futures market, then you can rest assure that you'll find the answer in this page.
The best way to clarify the advantages of the Forex market is through a real example. In 1929, the stock market collapsed, causing many people and businesses from around the world to go broke. This also happened when the high tech bubble burst. The fear of a market crash is a concern that constantly dwells in the minds of investors, both professional and beginner ones.
In the online Forex trading market, There is no way for the market to crash. If you have read about what is the Forex trading market, then you know that when you buy a certain currency, you are at the same time selling another currency. When some currencies' price false, others' price rise.
So this is the most important advantage of Forex day trading. Unlike other markets, where in some cases all traders lose money, with Forex trading there are always traders that make a profit, at any given time.
The best way to clarify the advantages of the Forex market is through a real example. In 1929, the stock market collapsed, causing many people and businesses from around the world to go broke. This also happened when the high tech bubble burst. The fear of a market crash is a concern that constantly dwells in the minds of investors, both professional and beginner ones.
In the online Forex trading market, There is no way for the market to crash. If you have read about what is the Forex trading market, then you know that when you buy a certain currency, you are at the same time selling another currency. When some currencies' price false, others' price rise.
So this is the most important advantage of Forex day trading. Unlike other markets, where in some cases all traders lose money, with Forex trading there are always traders that make a profit, at any given time.
Fundamental Analysis Vs Technical Analysis in the Forex Trading Market
The main difference between fundamental vs technical analysis of the Forex trading market is that, while fundamental analysis uses economic, political, social and other factors that affect supply and demand of the trading Forex market to foresee price movements, technical analysis uses mathematical and graphical charts of previous market action, in order to analyze the Forex trading market.
The basic difference between Forex fundamental and technical analysis is therefore that:
- Forex Fundamental analysis uses various factors that influence supply and demand to predict the currency change.
- Technical analysis uses charts of previous currency change to predict the currency change.
The basic difference between Forex fundamental and technical analysis is therefore that:
- Forex Fundamental analysis uses various factors that influence supply and demand to predict the currency change.
- Technical analysis uses charts of previous currency change to predict the currency change.
ITS NOT THE SYSTEM
After more than 2 years of trading, I can tell you a story about forex system. Forex system is a way to trade to have higher chances of profit. Unfortunately not all forex system works. This is because its not the system that is not working. It is you.
What if I tell you that I have a system that consist of Moving Average only. The system can make profit and will minimize you loses or even give you a chance to break even during hard times.
You would be thirll to test it out only to find out that in the end you are losing money and you say the system is crap. The truth is if one person is making money using the exact same system yet you are losing money. So where do you think the fault is? Is it with the system or is it with yourself?
You can never gain profit in Forex until you figure out what is wrong with you. Most of the time when you are losing money you would blame it on the market, news, system etc but never on yourself. Until you figure out what you did wrong, any system no matter how good will fail in your hands. After you realize what you did wrong, then you can make money, seriously.
When you know what not to do, you can trade without any indicator. I myself is trading using only MA now. Took me a while to understand but once you see it, you no longer depending on any indicator. It is your judgement that counts.
I never know what I would learn the further I go in this world or Forex. Right now I am starting to understand why some traders trade without any indicator. The best indicator is in your brain. You just need to develope it. It will take some time. No hurry.
What if I tell you that I have a system that consist of Moving Average only. The system can make profit and will minimize you loses or even give you a chance to break even during hard times.
You would be thirll to test it out only to find out that in the end you are losing money and you say the system is crap. The truth is if one person is making money using the exact same system yet you are losing money. So where do you think the fault is? Is it with the system or is it with yourself?
You can never gain profit in Forex until you figure out what is wrong with you. Most of the time when you are losing money you would blame it on the market, news, system etc but never on yourself. Until you figure out what you did wrong, any system no matter how good will fail in your hands. After you realize what you did wrong, then you can make money, seriously.
When you know what not to do, you can trade without any indicator. I myself is trading using only MA now. Took me a while to understand but once you see it, you no longer depending on any indicator. It is your judgement that counts.
I never know what I would learn the further I go in this world or Forex. Right now I am starting to understand why some traders trade without any indicator. The best indicator is in your brain. You just need to develope it. It will take some time. No hurry.
BIG PLAYERS SEE ONLY BIG NUMBERS
I am typing this from my pc. It a bit of a mess now, the new house still needs a little work and I am not feeling well lately. Maybe its the change in climate.
This week I am going to talk about numbers only. Forex is after all based on numbers. Example, I have a long position on GBPUSD @ 1.4700 with a profit of 320 pips at the moment and still holding.
What I am going to say is big players only see big number. The do not see the last 2 digit. The last 2 digit is for scalpers. Big players only see the 1st 3 or 4 digit only. So if a bank wants to buy or hedge a currency they will give an instruction to buy at 1.47. Thats it. Simple yet people fails to see it.
So what happens at 1.47? The price will bounce of or hover around it but things arent always what they appear to be. What happen is price will have a range between 1.46 - 1.48. That is almost 200 pips wide range. Imagine what happen to your 50 or 100 pip SL?? Now you know why people lose money even though they have the right direction.
These big players have big money they dont mind to stand few hundreds negative pips coz in the end they will profit big time. What they do is they will have a standing order to trade at certain level. Because the total amount of order, the market cannot fill the order in 1 transaction and so price will hover or bounce of a certain level. This is where double top or bottom appear. Behind it is the action of filling orders by these big players.
Example EJ currently have a top of 1.34 and a bottom of 1.30. Big players are playing the game here. At the moment EJ is climbing and there is a big possibility that it will reach 1.34 again. I have a standing order to buy EJ at 1.30. If it hits there is a very big chance for 400 pips gain. Only time will tell.
Attach is a chart of GBPUSD. If you look carefully, you can see my actual entry point. I will explain the rest of the chart in due time.
This week I am going to talk about numbers only. Forex is after all based on numbers. Example, I have a long position on GBPUSD @ 1.4700 with a profit of 320 pips at the moment and still holding.
What I am going to say is big players only see big number. The do not see the last 2 digit. The last 2 digit is for scalpers. Big players only see the 1st 3 or 4 digit only. So if a bank wants to buy or hedge a currency they will give an instruction to buy at 1.47. Thats it. Simple yet people fails to see it.
So what happens at 1.47? The price will bounce of or hover around it but things arent always what they appear to be. What happen is price will have a range between 1.46 - 1.48. That is almost 200 pips wide range. Imagine what happen to your 50 or 100 pip SL?? Now you know why people lose money even though they have the right direction.
These big players have big money they dont mind to stand few hundreds negative pips coz in the end they will profit big time. What they do is they will have a standing order to trade at certain level. Because the total amount of order, the market cannot fill the order in 1 transaction and so price will hover or bounce of a certain level. This is where double top or bottom appear. Behind it is the action of filling orders by these big players.
Example EJ currently have a top of 1.34 and a bottom of 1.30. Big players are playing the game here. At the moment EJ is climbing and there is a big possibility that it will reach 1.34 again. I have a standing order to buy EJ at 1.30. If it hits there is a very big chance for 400 pips gain. Only time will tell.
Attach is a chart of GBPUSD. If you look carefully, you can see my actual entry point. I will explain the rest of the chart in due time.
TRADING ONLY WITH MOVING AVERAGE
At the moment I am rather busy. Moving to a new place and house. The house still needs a lot of work. As a result, I do not have time to update this blog. Trading is still going on but on a shorter timeframe. Result is consistent now. AudUsd is very kind at the moment with no sudden movement.
In the next few weeks I will show you how to trade using only MA. As usual what works for me may not work for you. This is because some of you may not be able to follow the rules of the game.
RULES OF THE GAME
1. Trade based on your capital and the time that you have. The bigger your capital the longer the TF. The more time you have the longer the TF. Vice versa.
2. Only trade at the direction pointed by the MA pairs. If the MA pairs is showing mixed direction, do not trade. The MA pairs must be pointing at the same direction.
3. If a trade suddenly change direction, do not hesitate to close it at a loss and turn the trade. This is the hardest part where most of you failed. Free your mind or become a loser all your life.
4. Keep in mind, there is no such thing as winning all the time. Just make sure you win a lot more than you lose. In the end your profit will grow along with your confident.
Simple system with simple rules. I like to keep it simple. No point of having the most complex system when simple system can have the same result. With this system you will be out of the market most of the time. This is because you will only be taking the big move and avoiding the small move and market noise.
Last advise. Do not anticipate. Forex is not a game of inteligence eventhough this system at full swing will show you possible turning point. I am having a possible turning point for audusd at 0.7200 but I will not take it coz there will be market swing before the actual turn. Why wast time waiting for the big move when you can actually see when its going to move.
In the mean time, good luck for all of you. I will be back once my pc is online again. At the moment I am posting this on a laptop. I dont like laptop, too small keypad, makes it hard to do speed typing.
In the next few weeks I will show you how to trade using only MA. As usual what works for me may not work for you. This is because some of you may not be able to follow the rules of the game.
RULES OF THE GAME
1. Trade based on your capital and the time that you have. The bigger your capital the longer the TF. The more time you have the longer the TF. Vice versa.
2. Only trade at the direction pointed by the MA pairs. If the MA pairs is showing mixed direction, do not trade. The MA pairs must be pointing at the same direction.
3. If a trade suddenly change direction, do not hesitate to close it at a loss and turn the trade. This is the hardest part where most of you failed. Free your mind or become a loser all your life.
4. Keep in mind, there is no such thing as winning all the time. Just make sure you win a lot more than you lose. In the end your profit will grow along with your confident.
Simple system with simple rules. I like to keep it simple. No point of having the most complex system when simple system can have the same result. With this system you will be out of the market most of the time. This is because you will only be taking the big move and avoiding the small move and market noise.
Last advise. Do not anticipate. Forex is not a game of inteligence eventhough this system at full swing will show you possible turning point. I am having a possible turning point for audusd at 0.7200 but I will not take it coz there will be market swing before the actual turn. Why wast time waiting for the big move when you can actually see when its going to move.
In the mean time, good luck for all of you. I will be back once my pc is online again. At the moment I am posting this on a laptop. I dont like laptop, too small keypad, makes it hard to do speed typing.
WHAT FOREX IS NOT
Forex is not a quick rich scheme.
Forex is not easy even though my blog says so.
Forex is not a place for newbie
Forex is not something you can learn overnight
If you needed the money, dont put it in Forex. Seriously. Go somewhere else.
Forex is a journey, enjoy it.
There is no such thing as holy grail coz there is no perfection in this world. If perfection exist in this world it would be boring. No more room for improvement.
Forex is not rocket science. There is no right or wrong. There is only probability.
Easy Forex Trading
WHAT FOREX IS NOT
Forex is not a quick rich scheme.
Forex is not easy even though my blog says so.
Forex is not a place for newbie
Forex is not something you can learn overnight
If you needed the money, dont put it in Forex. Seriously. Go somewhere else.
Forex is a journey, enjoy it.
There is no such thing as holy grail coz there is no perfection in this world. If perfection exist in this world it would be boring. No more room for improvement.
Forex is not rocket science. There is no right or wrong. There is only probability.
15 April 2009
BIG PLAYERS SEE ONLY BIG NUMBERS
I am typing this from my pc. It a bit of a mess now, the new house still needs a little work and I am not feeling well lately. Maybe its the change in climate.
This week I am going to talk about numbers only. Forex is after all based on numbers. Example, I have a long position on GBPUSD @ 1.4700 with a profit of 320 pips at the moment and still holding.
What I am going to say is big players only see big number. The do not see the last 2 digit. The last 2 digit is for scalpers. Big players only see the 1st 3 or 4 digit only. So if a bank wants to buy or hedge a currency they will give an instruction to buy at 1.47. Thats it. Simple yet people fails to see it.
So what happens at 1.47? The price will bounce of or hover around it but things arent always what they appear to be. What happen is price will have a range between 1.46 - 1.48. That is almost 200 pips wide range. Imagine what happen to your 50 or 100 pip SL?? Now you know why people lose money even though they have the right direction.
These big players have big money they dont mind to stand few hundreds negative pips coz in the end they will profit big time. What they do is they will have a standing order to trade at certain level. Because the total amount of order, the market cannot fill the order in 1 transaction and so price will hover or bounce of a certain level. This is where double top or bottom appear. Behind it is the action of filling orders by these big players.
Example EJ currently have a top of 1.34 and a bottom of 1.30. Big players are playing the game here. At the moment EJ is climbing and there is a big possibility that it will reach 1.34 again. I have a standing order to buy EJ at 1.30. If it hits there is a very big chance for 400 pips gain. Only time will tell.
Attach is a chart of GBPUSD. If you look carefully, you can see my actual entry point. I will explain the rest of the chart in due time.
This week I am going to talk about numbers only. Forex is after all based on numbers. Example, I have a long position on GBPUSD @ 1.4700 with a profit of 320 pips at the moment and still holding.
What I am going to say is big players only see big number. The do not see the last 2 digit. The last 2 digit is for scalpers. Big players only see the 1st 3 or 4 digit only. So if a bank wants to buy or hedge a currency they will give an instruction to buy at 1.47. Thats it. Simple yet people fails to see it.
So what happens at 1.47? The price will bounce of or hover around it but things arent always what they appear to be. What happen is price will have a range between 1.46 - 1.48. That is almost 200 pips wide range. Imagine what happen to your 50 or 100 pip SL?? Now you know why people lose money even though they have the right direction.
These big players have big money they dont mind to stand few hundreds negative pips coz in the end they will profit big time. What they do is they will have a standing order to trade at certain level. Because the total amount of order, the market cannot fill the order in 1 transaction and so price will hover or bounce of a certain level. This is where double top or bottom appear. Behind it is the action of filling orders by these big players.
Example EJ currently have a top of 1.34 and a bottom of 1.30. Big players are playing the game here. At the moment EJ is climbing and there is a big possibility that it will reach 1.34 again. I have a standing order to buy EJ at 1.30. If it hits there is a very big chance for 400 pips gain. Only time will tell.
Attach is a chart of GBPUSD. If you look carefully, you can see my actual entry point. I will explain the rest of the chart in due time.
03 April 2009
TRADING ONLY WITH MOVING AVERAGE
At the moment I am rather busy. Moving to a new place and house. The house still needs a lot of work. As a result, I do not have time to update this blog. Trading is still going on but on a shorter timeframe. Result is consistent now. AudUsd is very kind at the moment with no sudden movement.
In the next few weeks I will show you how to trade using only MA. As usual what works for me may not work for you. This is because some of you may not be able to follow the rules of the game.
RULES OF THE GAME
1. Trade based on your capital and the time that you have. The bigger your capital the longer the TF. The more time you have the longer the TF. Vice versa.
2. Only trade at the direction pointed by the MA pairs. If the MA pairs is showing mixed direction, do not trade. The MA pairs must be pointing at the same direction.
3. If a trade suddenly change direction, do not hesitate to close it at a loss and turn the trade. This is the hardest part where most of you failed. Free your mind or become a loser all your life.
4. Keep in mind, there is no such thing as winning all the time. Just make sure you win a lot more than you lose. In the end your profit will grow along with your confident.
Simple system with simple rules. I like to keep it simple. No point of having the most complex system when simple system can have the same result. With this system you will be out of the market most of the time. This is because you will only be taking the big move and avoiding the small move and market noise.
Last advise. Do not anticipate. Forex is not a game of inteligence eventhough this system at full swing will show you possible turning point. I am having a possible turning point for audusd at 0.7200 but I will not take it coz there will be market swing before the actual turn. Why wast time waiting for the big move when you can actually see when its going to move.
In the mean time, good luck for all of you. I will be back once my pc is online again. At the moment I am posting this on a laptop. I dont like laptop, too small keypad, makes it hard to do speed typing.
In the next few weeks I will show you how to trade using only MA. As usual what works for me may not work for you. This is because some of you may not be able to follow the rules of the game.
RULES OF THE GAME
1. Trade based on your capital and the time that you have. The bigger your capital the longer the TF. The more time you have the longer the TF. Vice versa.
2. Only trade at the direction pointed by the MA pairs. If the MA pairs is showing mixed direction, do not trade. The MA pairs must be pointing at the same direction.
3. If a trade suddenly change direction, do not hesitate to close it at a loss and turn the trade. This is the hardest part where most of you failed. Free your mind or become a loser all your life.
4. Keep in mind, there is no such thing as winning all the time. Just make sure you win a lot more than you lose. In the end your profit will grow along with your confident.
Simple system with simple rules. I like to keep it simple. No point of having the most complex system when simple system can have the same result. With this system you will be out of the market most of the time. This is because you will only be taking the big move and avoiding the small move and market noise.
Last advise. Do not anticipate. Forex is not a game of inteligence eventhough this system at full swing will show you possible turning point. I am having a possible turning point for audusd at 0.7200 but I will not take it coz there will be market swing before the actual turn. Why wast time waiting for the big move when you can actually see when its going to move.
In the mean time, good luck for all of you. I will be back once my pc is online again. At the moment I am posting this on a laptop. I dont like laptop, too small keypad, makes it hard to do speed typing.
12 March 2009
ITS NOT THE SYSTEM
After more than 2 years of trading, I can tell you a story about forex system. Forex system is a way to trade to have higher chances of profit. Unfortunately not all forex system works. This is because its not the system that is not working. It is you.
What if I tell you that I have a system that consist of Moving Average only. The system can make profit and will minimize you loses or even give you a chance to break even during hard times.
You would be thirll to test it out only to find out that in the end you are losing money and you say the system is crap. The truth is if one person is making money using the exact same system yet you are losing money. So where do you think the fault is? Is it with the system or is it with yourself?
You can never gain profit in Forex until you figure out what is wrong with you. Most of the time when you are losing money you would blame it on the market, news, system etc but never on yourself. Until you figure out what you did wrong, any system no matter how good will fail in your hands. After you realize what you did wrong, then you can make money, seriously.
When you know what not to do, you can trade without any indicator. I myself is trading using only MA now. Took me a while to understand but once you see it, you no longer depending on any indicator. It is your judgement that counts.
I never know what I would learn the further I go in this world or Forex. Right now I am starting to understand why some traders trade without any indicator. The best indicator is in your brain. You just need to develope it. It will take some time. No hurry.
What if I tell you that I have a system that consist of Moving Average only. The system can make profit and will minimize you loses or even give you a chance to break even during hard times.
You would be thirll to test it out only to find out that in the end you are losing money and you say the system is crap. The truth is if one person is making money using the exact same system yet you are losing money. So where do you think the fault is? Is it with the system or is it with yourself?
You can never gain profit in Forex until you figure out what is wrong with you. Most of the time when you are losing money you would blame it on the market, news, system etc but never on yourself. Until you figure out what you did wrong, any system no matter how good will fail in your hands. After you realize what you did wrong, then you can make money, seriously.
When you know what not to do, you can trade without any indicator. I myself is trading using only MA now. Took me a while to understand but once you see it, you no longer depending on any indicator. It is your judgement that counts.
I never know what I would learn the further I go in this world or Forex. Right now I am starting to understand why some traders trade without any indicator. The best indicator is in your brain. You just need to develope it. It will take some time. No hurry.
24 February 2009
A DIFFICULT MARKET CONDITION
It is not looking particularly well for GBPUSD. In the other hand, EURUSD and AUDUSD is looking good for a long term trade. I am taking the long position. It may take a very long time to profit but looking at the chart from a technical view, EURUSD and AUDUSD is in a good position for a long term trading.
I dont exactly know the entry point but I do know the direction. It is time to monitor the shorter time frame in order to find the best possible entry and to minimize stop loss.
It may take sometime but I dont care. I have been waiting for this moment almost 2 months. Look at the charts and see the formation of daily, 4 hour, 30 minute and 5 minute. You may see something that took me over 2 years to see.
Only time can tell if my calculation is correct. At the moment I am still waiting for the 5 minute chart to give and entry signal.
Good luck to us all.
I dont exactly know the entry point but I do know the direction. It is time to monitor the shorter time frame in order to find the best possible entry and to minimize stop loss.
It may take sometime but I dont care. I have been waiting for this moment almost 2 months. Look at the charts and see the formation of daily, 4 hour, 30 minute and 5 minute. You may see something that took me over 2 years to see.
Only time can tell if my calculation is correct. At the moment I am still waiting for the 5 minute chart to give and entry signal.
Good luck to us all.
12 February 2009
UPDATE
This blog has not been regularly updated. This is due to internet connection problem. It has been months now and my internet connection is still not up to 100% fitness level. I can post text but I cannot upload pictures or any attachment. I even opted to use my office internet during the day for my uploads.
As for forex I am playing the short term game. 5 minute TF to be exact. It is much safer since my internet is not stable. Its a intraday system trading the 30 minute trend with a 5 minute signal for entry and exit. So far so good.
Actually the system is simple. It is based on MA and RSI only. Even trading is simple for me nowadays. It seems that experience changes me. I am no longer sitting in front of the PC hoping for miracle. There is no miracle in Forex. It is just knowledge and study so that the direction can be expected.
The longer I trade the more I understand. After all I am still learning with every trade. Now I understand how people can trade from candlestick alone. This is because the best indicator is not on the screen but in your head. Use your brain, the best indicator of all.
By the way just wanted to invite you to my flickr page. Just an old hobby given new life with a new DSLR A350. Now I have 3 camera, each one with its own unique features. Do check out my flicr page and tell me if you like my photography style. Just needed to find a model for my portrait shot.
Back to Forex its in ranging mode now but the daily chart is showing a weakness is trend. EU is a downtrend but is weakening at the moment. 30m chart is still showing a downtrend at the moment with 5m chart is supporting it. So for today the best bet is to short EU but watch out for the long term trade.
As for forex I am playing the short term game. 5 minute TF to be exact. It is much safer since my internet is not stable. Its a intraday system trading the 30 minute trend with a 5 minute signal for entry and exit. So far so good.
Actually the system is simple. It is based on MA and RSI only. Even trading is simple for me nowadays. It seems that experience changes me. I am no longer sitting in front of the PC hoping for miracle. There is no miracle in Forex. It is just knowledge and study so that the direction can be expected.
The longer I trade the more I understand. After all I am still learning with every trade. Now I understand how people can trade from candlestick alone. This is because the best indicator is not on the screen but in your head. Use your brain, the best indicator of all.
By the way just wanted to invite you to my flickr page. Just an old hobby given new life with a new DSLR A350. Now I have 3 camera, each one with its own unique features. Do check out my flicr page and tell me if you like my photography style. Just needed to find a model for my portrait shot.
Back to Forex its in ranging mode now but the daily chart is showing a weakness is trend. EU is a downtrend but is weakening at the moment. 30m chart is still showing a downtrend at the moment with 5m chart is supporting it. So for today the best bet is to short EU but watch out for the long term trade.
26 January 2009
FREE FOREX SIGNAL - NOT REALLY
When people say free forex signal, it refer to an instruction to trade specific currency pair at a certain price. Normally this signal is based on the trader study and experience. It is more of a personal view of things to come.
In certain cases the signal does work. In a different situation, it fails. This is because the person giving that signal is also a small trader. His study is based on either technical or fundamental with no real money to back it up.
If that person is good, he will have enough followers and the total money traded towards his signal will back him up and make the currency move. If that person have very few followers, then he is swimming alone in a sea full of sharks.
That is what most of us do. We do not coordinate and we work alone in forex. Thats why the sharks are taking their time and making easy picking of us, swallowing one at a time. It doesnt sounds good but its the truth. Now you dont have to wonder why most people fails and why banks keep on making huge profit.
If you want to take forex signal, take it from someone who you can trust from inside the banks. They have a lot more info and study on forex. The amount of info, knowlegde, manpower and money is impossible for any of us to compete.
For some people who manage to find a method to be profitable in forex, its a good thing. You have found a way to take advantage of the system. The system after all is developed by human and human by itself is full of weaknesses.
For those of you who is losing, its time to think about swimming alone is a sea of sharks. Time to find friends and help each other out in terms of knowledge and money power.
Dont get me wrong, I am in profit today. I have found a way to take advantage of the system though its like a mouse, stealing food one little bit at a time. Better to profit a little than losing all the time but for how long are you willing to be the small fish. Always jumping in and out of trade. Hoping for the trend to hold long enough for you to gain a little profit.
In order for me to grow in forex, I need to team up. It has long been in my mind, just looking for the right opportunity and people. Anyone here think the same?
In certain cases the signal does work. In a different situation, it fails. This is because the person giving that signal is also a small trader. His study is based on either technical or fundamental with no real money to back it up.
If that person is good, he will have enough followers and the total money traded towards his signal will back him up and make the currency move. If that person have very few followers, then he is swimming alone in a sea full of sharks.
That is what most of us do. We do not coordinate and we work alone in forex. Thats why the sharks are taking their time and making easy picking of us, swallowing one at a time. It doesnt sounds good but its the truth. Now you dont have to wonder why most people fails and why banks keep on making huge profit.
If you want to take forex signal, take it from someone who you can trust from inside the banks. They have a lot more info and study on forex. The amount of info, knowlegde, manpower and money is impossible for any of us to compete.
For some people who manage to find a method to be profitable in forex, its a good thing. You have found a way to take advantage of the system. The system after all is developed by human and human by itself is full of weaknesses.
For those of you who is losing, its time to think about swimming alone is a sea of sharks. Time to find friends and help each other out in terms of knowledge and money power.
Dont get me wrong, I am in profit today. I have found a way to take advantage of the system though its like a mouse, stealing food one little bit at a time. Better to profit a little than losing all the time but for how long are you willing to be the small fish. Always jumping in and out of trade. Hoping for the trend to hold long enough for you to gain a little profit.
In order for me to grow in forex, I need to team up. It has long been in my mind, just looking for the right opportunity and people. Anyone here think the same?
How to become a currency trader
If you are anything like me, you probably imagine that it is difficult to become a foreign currency trader. Perhaps there are rules, regulations and other hoops that have to be jumped through. Maybe you need large amounts of cash in order to get started.
No.
Becoming a Forex currency trader is incredibly simple!
Get A Demo Account
As I beginner I'd suggest you sign up with Oanda. Not only do they have a good reputation but they offer other advantages for a beginning trader as well:
- You can sign up for a live account with very little initial capital.
- You can execute trades of just about any arbitrary (small) size.
So, that's what I did. I started with $100 in my account and was off to the markets. Sweet, I'm a forex trader!
Learning To Trade Foreign Exchange
If you have a demo account, enter some trades. See what happens. Then, after the results come in, search for information about what happened. You'll find some helpful advice in blogs, such as mine, as well as various tutorial and forum sites. I would suggest that you buy a book or two on forex trading, technical analysis and perhaps something concerning the attributes of successful traders.
However, with a few dollars on the table, I realize that now the more difficult process starts. Now that I have a few dollars on the table I'm ready to start learning the lessons of the trade. Frankly, I won't be able to trade realistically if I am not actually risking my own money, so I have to do it this way. Of course, for most people, $100 is not a big enough sum of money to be a hardship if lost anyway.
So, I'm just blathering because the markets are currently closed for their regular weekend respite. I'm sitting in a precarious position because I have some open trades on my account and there is no telling what shape the market will be in when Sunday evening rolls around. I may be lucky and end up way ahead or I may be unlucky and lose my initial $100 payment. Another potential lesson is looming...
Oh, I should mention, these days Forex trading with a reputable company is quite safe. While there are large risks and large rewards, my risks are essentially limited to the capital that I have put into my account. With wise strategies I can limit risks further, but as a beginner it is comforting to know that I can't lose more than I let sit in my account no matter how foolish a beginner mistake I might make.
UPDATE:
I should stress that you could lose all the capital you put in your account, so do not start out with a large account with the idea that you will only conduct small trades. At the very least, create some sub-accounts and keep the majority of your capital out of harms way until you have blown up your play money account, learned a few lessons, and know how to protect your capital.
How do Forexx quotes work?
Reading a FOREX quote may seem a bit confusing at first. However, it's really quite simple if you remember two things: 1) The first currency listed first is the base currency and 2) the value of the base currency is always 1.
The US dollar is the centerpiece of the FOREX market and is normally considered the 'base' currency for quotes. In the "Majors", this includes USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD. For these currencies and many others, quotes are expressed as a unit of $1 USD per the second currency quoted in the pair. For example, a quote of USD/JPY 110.01 means that one U.S. dollar is equal to 110.01 Japanese yen.
When the U.S. dollar is the base unit and a currency quote goes up, it means the dollar has appreciated in value and the other currency has weakened. If the USD/JPY quote we previously mentioned increases to 113.01, the dollar is stronger because it will now buy more yen than before.
The three exceptions to this rule are the British pound (GBP), the Australian dollar (AUD) and the Euro (EUR). In these cases, you might see a quote such as GBP/USD 1.7366, meaning that one British pound equals 1.7366 U.S. dollars.
In these three currency pairs, where the U.S. dollar is not the base rate, a rising quote means a weakening dollar, as it now takes more U.S. dollars to equal one pound, euro or Australian dollar.
In other words, if a currency quote goes higher, that increases the value of the base currency. A lower quote means the base currency is weakening.
Currency pairs that do not involve the U.S. dollar are called cross currencies, but the premise is the same. For example, a quote of EUR/JPY 127.95 signifies that one Euro is equal to 127.95 Japanese yen.
When trading FOREX you will often see a two-sided quote, consisting of a 'bid' and 'offer'. The 'bid' is the price at which you can sell the base currency (at the same time buying the counter currency). The 'ask' is the price at which you can buy the base currency (at the same time selling the counter currency)
When to Trade?
The question quite often comes up about when are the best times to trade? Everyone has their own ideas on what they think is the best time to trade, and quite often it depends on what type of system you are using. If you run a system that looks for trends, the best time for you would be different for a system looking for breakouts.
Rather than get into all that however (again just google "best forex trading times" for plenty of info on that) let's look at the best times to trade based on your experience instead.
A beginner, I would think, would be someone new to the forex markets, someone who has yet to fully develop their trading system, or, if they have, find it hard to maintain the discipline to stick to it no matter what. Some things that might identify a beginner trade could be:
Unaware of stop losses
Unsure of trend identification
Looking at one timeframe only (probably the 5M or 15M)
Quick to jump into a trade, slow to get out
Hazy on when to exit a profitable trade
Please don't think I am talking down to anyone, as some of the above applies to us all at times but these are things that I see encapsulate beginnner traders.
With those points in mind, the safest trading time would be one where:
The chances of big losses are low
You have time to think you trades through
There are some defineable trends to help you out in getting on the right side of the trade
Sharp, quick movements in the opposite direction to your trade aren't common
The markets can move so quickly, and any trade placed without a stop loss, is open to a sharp reversal and a big loss. Head out for a cup of tea, come back and your +10 could now be -50 by the time the kettle has boiled.
So when is the best time to trade based on the above? Well lets look it another way, what are the times where the above points are not met. My opinion? The opening of the different markets! There are three major markets to look out for, the Asian market, the European market and the US market. The opening and closing of these markets are often the most volatile, with sharp movements up and down with no apparent order quite often seen and many a beginner trader crying foul over a sharp reversal on their trade they have just been watching for the last hour.
Look at the above chart, this is a 15M chart from late last week of the EUR/USD. I have highlighted two areas, which is the opening of the European and US markets. Notice, how just before the opening of the price was slowly trending in one direction, but then, as the respective markets opened a sharp reversal sprung up in the opposite direction, taking with it many peoples profits I am sure, and spoiling many a traders tea. You find this espectially on the opening of Europe.
The best times for quiet, trending activity tends to be in the middle third of the trading sessions, the middle of the Asian session is a less volatile time, but can be too quiet for some. Approaching the opening of the European sessions, activity tends to pick up, but remember, be careful come opening time. I prefer the mid European session, but rarely get to trade it due to the time differences here in Australia, the mid US session can also be good but usually I am so buggered by that time, my decision making is shocking.
So pick what you prefer, if you are in it for a fast buck and don't care about making it a possible career, then opening and closing times can be right up your ally, but if you want to test out a system you are developing, look at the mid session times that suit you. Remember though news releases and data can effect everything, so always keep an eye out on the news anytime you trade.
Remember, this is not necessarily the most profitable time to trade in terms of pip movement, but while you are picking things up, minimising the chance of your account being wiped out is always a good idea.
I hope this helps someone, you can get the current times in the different areas by using this great little forex clock here. For my fellow countryfolk in Australia, below are the opening and closing times in AEST (thanks to aaron on Marketiva for these):
[AUS open 8:00am close 4:00pm]
[JYP open 10:00am close 6:00pm]
[EUR open 4:00pm close 12:00am]
[GBP open 5:00pm close 1:00am]
[USD open 10:00pm close 6:00am]
Ill leave it with a quote I read somewhere:
"Ametuers open the markets, professionals close them"
what is PIP ?
In EUR/USD, a 3 pip spread is quoted as 1.2500/1.2503
Among the major currencies, the only exception to that rule is the Japanese yen. In USD/JPY, the quotation is only taken out to two decimal points (i.e. to 1/100 th of yen, as opposed to 1/1000th with other major currencies).
In USD/JPY, a 3 pip spread is quoted as 114.05/114.08
The smallest price increment in a currency, so instead of a point like in stocks, in the forex market it is called a pip.
When To Exit
Welcome to another article, this time on when to exit a trade. When beginner traders start looking for that magic "make me a bucket load of cash" trading system, quite often the last thing thought about is their exit strategy. Usually the first and most important thing on a traders mind is when to enter a market, forgetting that you actually make bugger all money if you can't execute and exit as precisely as you entered.
There are three main scenarios that a trader will find themselves thinking of their exit:
A trade has moved as expected and they are in profit
A trade has moved opposite to what they expected, and they are in loss
A trade is dancing around the neutral zone of their trade
At first glance, you would think the easiest scenario of the three to exit under is number 1, i.e. when you are in profit, after all you are "cashing in" so how hard can it be. In fact, in reality all three can be as hard as each other. The reason?, like most things with trading, it comes to emotion. Below I have added the underlying emotions that might stop you closing a trade under these three scenarios:
A trade has moved as expected and they are in profit (GREED)
A trade has moved opposite to what they expected, and they are in loss (OPTIMISM)
A trade and dancing around the neutral zone of the trade (FEAR)
Let's look at them one by one.
Cannot close a profitable trade (Greed)
Everyone fights greed every day in life, always "wanting" rather than sticking to what you actually "need". It is part of a materialistic modern day culture that most of us are subject to. Trading is no different, and it is usually greed that can turn a nice logical, well planned and profitable trade into a losing one. When this happens, a trader reacts two ways, one, they are distraught at themselves for letting it all get away, or two, they tell themselves "well I was right with my prediction, the market just had it in for me".
Think of this, you set up a trade, monitor the setup closely, wait for the exact time to enter a trade, calculate your stop loss, your order is hit and you are in the trade. The price action moves beautifully, moving quickly towards your scantily thought about target (if you set one), and the sense of delight sends your brain into overdrive, working out the profits, imagining the ferrari soon to be in the drive-way, wondering if 2000 pips has ever been done in one day. This is when you know you are in some trouble, this is when greed has started to set in, you remove your profit target thinking "let's see how long this goes", you don't move your stop loss, cause you don't even contemplate that it might reverse, and you "go for the ride".
A common saying is "cut your losses, and let your profits run" (or something like that ;)), and it is a very good theory that should be followed. However, how do you ride your profits, without risking a reversal that you will undoubtedly put down to "a correction that will soon move back my way".
Personally I look at it this way:
Move your stop loss to break even or better as soon as is logically possible without risking being whipsawed out, that will ensure you will not lose money on the trade, ease the stress, and bring peace to the world (ok maybe not that). I take the view of never let a winning trade turn into a losing one so at least lock in 1 pip if it makes you feel better.
If the move was stronger that you anticipated, and you had a 20 pip profit target. Remove your profit target, and move your stop loss to the profit target as soon as possible. What you effectively have done is close your trade (because your stop loss is at your original target) and you are letting your profits run at the same time, two for the price of one, bargain!
Continue to follow the trade with your stop loss, and remember, 20 pips was your target, be satisfied with whatever you can get after that, but don't take any less. You can use one of the many trailing stop techniques to do this or look at the parabolic SAR indicator.
Cannot close a losing trade (Optimism)
I was tempted to use the word "Dillusion" for this one but felt perhaps that is a little harsh, you know the deal, you enter a trade, you set a 25 pip stop loss, the trade moves the wrong way and you are -20 on the trade, you look at the chart again frantically, and optimistically think "Oh of course ... I should have set the stop loss beyond that resistance level from the year 1967, what was I thinking" and you change your stop loss, making it -35. The price continues to move in the wrong direction, and you either cop a -35 pip loss instead of -20, or you remove your stop loss all together and spend the next week driving everyone nuts asking "will the EUR/USD go up?" to every trader in the chat room.
... Some may say, that they removed their stop loss and eventually, their -100 pips turned into +10, so there .. stick that up your jumper ...
What you do when you move a stop loss further away from entry, is completely change the ratio of the trade you entered. What was originally a 2:1 trade, i.e. your potential gain was twice as large as your potential loss, becomes a 1:1 trade, which is just asking for a margin call very quickly.
My advice on this? NEVER NEVER (I think that is pretty clear) move a stop loss further away from your entry, you can move it closer or break even if you wish, as this improves your risk/reward ratio, but never away. Some may say, that they removed their stop loss and eventually, their -100 pips turned into +10, so there .. stick that up your jumper ... the only problem is, that while they waited the week out waiting for the price to turn around (sometimes it never does .. look at the USD/JPY at the moment) they have tied up the entire margin, meaning they are locked out of many many more potentially profitable trades. So while you might end the week at +10, in the meantime other trades cut their losses at -20, entered 15 more trades in the week, and finished +100 for the week and at the same time learnt a hell of a lot more.
You want to close a trade dancing around the neutral zone (Fear)
A Winning Forex Trading Philosophy
You cannot trade based on how much money you want to make. You cannot trade based on how much money you need to make. This means that you can't push money into the market, desperately searching for opportunity, risking a large portion of your net asset value in the process.
You must trade lightly.
When you trade lightly, you simply let the market give you the returns that it is willing to relinquish to you. Quite simply, it is not a process of taking.
If you can change your mindset it will give you a lot of peace compared to the level of stress that many generate. Dip your toes into the market, following your strategy, with a level of investment that simply cannot begin to raise your blood pressure.
A little bit of market wisdom, developed with experience, combined with an appropriate philosophy will generate profits. I know that this is difficult to consider or even believe in today's rational calculating world, but the only way to win is to not fight the market. It is way too big for you.
Stop trying to generate winning positions and simply let the market give them to you.
Part Time Currency Trader
As I've written before it is quite easy to become a currency trader. The harder part is being a currency trader that doesn't lose money. You see, according to the scuttlebutt on the forums, about 90% of new traders end up losing their money to the market.
Are you thinking about trying your hand?
I'm not here to talk you out of it. I myself am a part time currency trader. By day I work at my office job and by night I fight crime with a mask and cape. Wait, no, that's not right. By night I trade online when family duties allow me to squander a chunk of time.
Trading part time has it's challenges. You will see endless market movements that you did not participate in. You will miss opportunities to open or close a position even though your ideas about what would happen next were proven right. In fact, a very large part of trading well involves being able to deal with the psychological aspects of trading, whether part time or not.
If you read other posts in my blog, such as this one on trading philosophy, you'll see that I recommend working with very small trades. If you take larger trades, relative to your available capital, you'll find the emotional stress greatly magnified. It is very difficult to make good decisions as you watch your capital evaporate before your eyes.
Nothing will drive you from the market quicker than watching your capital shrink, panicking and saving what little you can, and then watching the market reverse leaving you without a stake. Or, perhaps worse, you do get back in after seeing a healthy rise, only to watch the market reverse yet again and wreak havoc on your capital once again.
It happens. I'm sure it happens a lot.
Did I mention that I'm not trying to talk you out of becoming a currency trader? It certainly isn't impossible to trade successfully but you really have to understand that there are many different ways to be unsuccessful. One very easy way to fail is to enter the market during a period in which it is easy to understand market behavior, think that trading is quite easy, and then have the market turn upside down and brutally fleece you.
Let's see. Yes, another painful lesson is developing the discipline to set stops and then have them tripped trivially, while the market does in fact go in the direction that you expected. Of course, this sets you up for the opposite, hanging on to a trade endlessly expecting to go as you expected, while it sucks up more and more capital.
My advice, do become a currency trader. Take your time. Learn with a practice account. Eventually, switch to a micro or nano account and trade with very small amounts of money. Continue to play with very small capitalizations until you have blown up your account once or twice -- this happens when you get a margin call and all your funds (except active margin) are forfeited.
Take the long view. There is always going to be another opportunity. No currency pair moves only up or only down. When trading part time you must either make accurate predictions or tread softly enough that the market can't move far enough to cause a margin call.
Anyway, to get into some information you can act on, if you are totally new to the game you'll want to know the following:
- Most, if not all, companies that offer online foreign exchange trading provide free forex demo accounts. These practice accounts are the same as live accounts except of course that you don't trade real money.
- A currency trading platform is simply a fancy name for what is usually branded currency trading software. This software will let you view charts for various currency pairs, add indicators and execute trades
- Forex trading is global. You can trade starting on Monday moring in Asia until Friday night in New York. Trading is 24 hours a day during this period though each trading session will offer differing market volume and behavior.
- If you are looking for a place to open your first forex demo account I'd suggest Oanda. To ensure that you don't think I'm compensated to say that I'll ask you to search Google to find them. They are a reputable company that allows you to trade with very small amounts -- which is great for starting out.
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